Probabilistic models of planetary contamination

Likely fundamental inadequacies in the model of planetary contamination advanced by Sagan and Coleman are discussed. It is shown that a relatively minor modification of the basic Sagan-Coleman formula yields approximations that are generally adequate with data in the range of interest. This approximation formula differs from the original Sagan-Coleman version only through an initial conditioning on landing outcome. It always yields an upper (conservative) bound for the total probability of contamination, this appealing feature is lost if the conditioning on landing outcome is deleted

Assessment of different urban traffic control strategy impacts on vehicle emissions

This paper investigates the influence of traffic signal control strategy on vehicle emissions, vehicle journey time and total throughput flow within a single isolated four-armed junction. Two pre-timed signal plans are considered, one with two-stages involving permissive-only opposing turns and the other with four-stages which has no conflicting traffic. Additionally, the increase in efficiency by utilising actuated signal timing where green time is re-optimised as flow values vary is investigated. A microscopic traffic simulation model is used to model flows and AIRE (Analysis of Instantaneous Road Emissions) microscopic emissions model is utilised to out- put emission levels from the flow data. A simple junction model shows that the two-stage signal plan is more efficient in both emis- sions and journey time. However, as the level of opposed turning vehicles and conflicting movement increases, the two-stage model moves to being the inferior signal plan choice and the four-stage plan outputs fewer emissions than the two-stage plan. A real-world example of a four-armed junction has been used in this study and from the traffic survey data and existing junction layout; it is rec- ommended that a two-stage plan is used as it produces lower amounts of emissions and shorter journey times compared to a four-stage plan. The results also show that nitrogen oxides (NOx) are the most sensitive to changes in flow followed by carbon dioxide (CO2), Black Carbon and then particulate matter (PM10)

Impact of traffic management on black carbon emissions: a microsimulation study

This paper investigates the effectiveness of traffic management tools, includ- ing traffic signal control and en-route navigation provided by variable message signs (VMS), in reducing traffic congestion and associated emissions of CO2, NOx, and black carbon. The latter is among the most significant contributors of climate change, and is associated with many serious health problems. This study combines traffic microsimulation (S-Paramics) with emission modeling (AIRE) to simulate and predict the impacts of different traffic management measures on a number traffic and environmental Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) assessed at different spatial levels. Simulation results for a real road network located in West Glasgow suggest that these traffic management tools can bring a reduction in travel delay and BC emission respectively by up to 6 % and 3 % network wide. The improvement at local levels such as junctions or corridors can be more significant. However, our results also show that the potential benefits of such interventions are strongly dependent on a number of factors, including dynamic demand profile, VMS compliance rate, and fleet composition. Extensive discussion based on the simulation results as well as managerial insights are provided to support traffic network operation and control with environmental goals. The study described by this paper was conducted under the support of the FP7-funded CARBOTRAF project

Binaries among Ap and Am stars

The results of long-term surveys of radial velocities of cool Ap and Am stars are presented. There are two samples, one of about 100 Ap stars and the other of 86 Am stars. Both have been observed with the CORAVEL scanner from Observatoire de Haute-Provence (CNRS), France. The conspicuous lack of short-period binaries among cool Ap stars seems confirmed, although this may be the result of an observational bias; one system has a period as short as 1.6 days. A dozen new orbits could be determined, including that of one SB2 system. Considering the mass functions of 68 binaries from the literature and from our work, we conclude that the distribution of the mass ratios is the same for the Bp-Ap stars than for normal G dwarfs. Among the Am stars, we found 52 binaries, i.e. 60%; an orbit could be computed for 29 of them. Among these 29, there are 7 SB2 systems, one triple and one quadruple system. The 21 stars with an apparently constant radial velocity may show up later as long-period binaries with a high eccentricity. The mass functions of the SB1 systems are compatible with cool main-sequence companions, also suggested by ongoing spectral observations.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures, to appear in: Proc. of the 26th workshop of the European Working Group on CP stars, Contrib. Astr. Obs. Skalnate Pleso Vol. 27, No

The Angular Diameter and Fundamental Parameters of Sirius A

The Sydney University Stellar Interferometer (SUSI) has been used to make a new determination of the angular diameter of Sirius A. The observations were made at an effective wavelength of 694.1 nm and the new value for the limb-darkened angular diameter is 6.048 +/- 0.040mas (+/-0.66%). This new result is compared with previous measurements and is found to be in excellent agreement with a conventionally calibrated measurement made with the European Southern Observatory's Very Large Telescope Interferometer (VLTI) at 2.176 microns (but not with a second globally calibrated VLTI measurement). A weighted mean of the SUSI and first VLTI results gives the limb-darkened angular diameter of Sirius A as 6.041 +/- 0.017mas (+/-0.28%). Combination with the Hipparcos parallax gives the radius equal to 1.713 +/- 0.009R_sun. The bolometric flux has been determined from published photometry and spectrophotometry and, combined with the angular diameter, yields the emergent flux at the stellar surface equal to (5.32+/- 0.14)x10^8 Wm^-2 and the effective temperature equal to 9845 +/- 64 K. The luminosity is 24.7 +/- 0.7 L_sun.Comment: Accepted for publication in PAS

Local forest structure variability increases resilience to wildfire in dry western U.S. coniferous forests.

A 'resilient' forest endures disturbance and is likely to persist. Resilience to wildfire may arise from feedback between fire behaviour and forest structure in dry forest systems. Frequent fire creates fine-scale variability in forest structure, which may then interrupt fuel continuity and prevent future fires from killing overstorey trees. Testing the generality and scale of this phenomenon is challenging for vast, long-lived forest ecosystems. We quantify forest structural variability and fire severity across >30 years and >1000 wildfires in California's Sierra Nevada. We find that greater variability in forest structure increases resilience by reducing rates of fire-induced tree mortality and that the scale of this effect is local, manifesting at the smallest spatial extent of forest structure tested (90 × 90 m). Resilience of these forests is likely compromised by structural homogenisation from a century of fire suppression, but could be restored with management that increases forest structural variability

Empirical constraints on vacuum decay in the stringy landscape

It is generally considered as self evident that the lifetime of our vacuum in the landscape of string theory cannot be much shorter than the current age of the universe. Here I show why this lower limit is invalid. A certain type of ``parallel universes'' is a necessary consequence of the string-landscape dynamics and might well allow us to ``survive'' vacuum decay. As a consequence our stringy vacuum's lifetime is empirically unconstrained and could be very short. Based on this counter-intuitive insight I propose a novel type of laboratory experiment that searches for an apparent violation of the quantum-mechanical Born rule by gravitational effects on vacuum decay. If the lifetime of our vacuum should turn out to be shorter than 6 x 10^{-13} seconds such an experiment is sufficiently sensitive to determine its value with state-of-the-art equipment.Comment: 13 pages, 2 figures, proposes a laboratory experimen

CARBOTRAF: A decision Support system for reducing pollutant emissions by adaptive traffic management

Traffic congestion with frequent “stop & go” situations causes substantial pollutant emissions. Black carbon (BC) is a good indicator of combustion-related air pollution and results in negative health effects. Both BC and CO2 emissions are also known to contribute significantly to global warming. Current traffic control systems are designed to improve traffic flow and reduce congestion. The CARBOTRAF system combines real-time monitoring of traffic and air pollution with simulation models for emission and local air quality prediction in order to deliver on-line recommendations for alternative adaptive traffic management. The aim of introducing a CARBOTRAF system is to reduce BC and CO2 emissions and improve air quality by optimizing the traffic flows. The system is implemented and evaluated in two pilot cities, Graz and Glasgow. Model simulations link traffic states to emission and air quality levels. A chain of models combines micro-scale traffic simulations, traffic volumes, emission models and air quality simulations. This process is completed for several ITS scenarios and a range of traffic boundary conditions. The real-time DSS system uses all these model simulations to select optimal traffic and air quality scenarios. Traffic and BC concentrations are simultaneously monitored. In this paper the effects of ITS measures on air quality are analysed with a focus on BC